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Arunasset’s Short-Term Call on Indian Markets Has a Name — Reflation

Arunasset’s 12-month view on Indian markets can be summed up in one word — Reflation. After two years of disinflation, tight liquidity and elevated real rates, the policy gears are finally shifting toward growth. The Reserve Bank of India’s 50-basis-point rate cut in June, its dovish tone on inflation, and expanding credit all signal a turn to a more supportive monetary environment. The government, meanwhile, continues to prioritise infrastructure spending, using healthy tax revenues to sustain capital outlays. Together, these moves mark the first coordinated reflationary turn since the 2014–17 recovery.

Categories blog

India’s Consumer Tax Overhaul to Offset U.S. Tariff Pains

India’s economy is being buffeted by two very different forces. On one side, the Trump administration has slapped steep new tariffs on Indian exports, threatening growth and jobs in key industries. On the other, the Modi government has rolled out the most ambitious reform of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since its launch, cutting consumer taxes to spark a wave of domestic demand. For investors, the key question is whether the domestic stimulus can balance the external shock.

Categories blog

Capitulation as Strategy: The World Grovels, and Trump Smells Blood

As the world edges closer to Trump’s August 1 tariff ultimatum, global leaders are not negotiating — they’re surrendering. One by one, governments are lining up not to bargain but to beg. And no moment captured this global humiliation more than European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s surreal visit to Trump’s private golf course in Scotland, where, in a scene more befitting a medieval court than modern diplomacy, she presented Europe’s tribute.

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